Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
